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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Kocaelispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa and Kocaelispor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG and Kocaelispor 0.71 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Kocaelispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 18%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 45%, Kocaelispor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights