Kasımpaşa 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Hatayspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 1D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kasımpaşa are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Hatayspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 60% versus Hatayspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.62 xG and Hatayspor 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.992 / defence 1.438 | Hatayspor attack 0.821 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Kasımpaşa games / 40 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.62 / Hatayspor 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.992 / def 1.438 | Hatayspor attack 0.821 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hatayspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.55
23%
4.27
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.20
1.58
Hatayspor xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.58 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 17L across 40 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.30 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Hatayspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Hatayspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Hatayspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Kasımpaşa and 50% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 45% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 50% of Hatayspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.62 xG and Hatayspor 1.58 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 1.44 against Hatayspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 37%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Hatayspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.