Kasımpaşa 3-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hatayspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 0.90 PPG, Hatayspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Hatayspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 58% versus Hatayspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 42% | Hatayspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG and Hatayspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.944 / defence 1.352 | Hatayspor attack 0.810 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.104. Data: 19 Kasımpaşa games / 19 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Hatayspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 60% | Hatayspor 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.25 / Hatayspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.944 / def 1.352 | Hatayspor attack 0.810 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Hatayspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.41
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.21
Hatayspor xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.21 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 3W 6D 10L from 19 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 7L across 19 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hatayspor by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Kasımpaşa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 5W 1D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 2D 7L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.20 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Hatayspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 60%, Hatayspor 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kasımpaşa) and 30% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 40%; Hatayspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 30% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 30% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Hatayspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG and Hatayspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against Hatayspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 34%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 42%, Hatayspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.