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Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Hatayspor 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Hatayspor 5-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Hatayspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Hatayspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Hatayspor's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights