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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 63%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.41 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights