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Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Galatasaray 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Galatasaray 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Galatasaray 1.44 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Galatasaray attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 26% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 41%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 56%, Galatasaray 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Galatasaray's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights