Kasımpaşa 1-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kasımpaşa have collected 0.75 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 1W 2D 1L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games (0.62 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's away record: 0W 2D 2L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.75 for Kasımpaşa, 0.62 for Göztepe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 50% versus Göztepe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 38% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG and Göztepe 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.995 / defence 1.168 | Göztepe attack 0.874 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.147. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Kasımpaşa games / 8 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 3.45. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.54 / Göztepe 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.995 / def 1.168 | Göztepe attack 0.874 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Göztepe xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 46% chance of winning, Göztepe a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.87x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.96
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.71
1.17
Göztepe xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 5L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 0.62 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Kasımpaşa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Göztepe's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Göztepe away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.25 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 5-0 on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Göztepe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Kasımpaşa, 100% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kasımpaşa and 75% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 75% of Göztepe's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Göztepe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Göztepe defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG and Göztepe 1.17 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Göztepe attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 38%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 0.75 PPG, Göztepe 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.