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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 0-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.28 xG and Göztepe 1.18 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Göztepe outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 33% | Göztepe 31%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Göztepe 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Göztepe's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.21 PPG, Göztepe 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights