Kasımpaşa 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Kasımpaşa welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 0.90 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 62% versus Fatih Karagümrük 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.78 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.955 / defence 1.186 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.277 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.355. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Kasımpaşa games / 55 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 34% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 44%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 34% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.78 / Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.955 / def 1.186 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.277 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 34% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
34%
2.96
22%
4.60
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.83
2.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
4%
23.01
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 2.05 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 11D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (21W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.29 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 10W 5D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.51 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 11D 24L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.30 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Fatih Karagümrük 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kasımpaşa and 63% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 63% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.78 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.28 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 34% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 44%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Fatih Karagümrük 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.29 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.