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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.66 / defence 0.94 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 43%, Fatih Karagümrük 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 0.76 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights