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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Eyüpspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.10 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kasımpaşa lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 53% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.43 xG and Eyüpspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.861 / defence 0.912 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Kasımpaşa games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Eyüpspor 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kasımpaşa 20% | Eyüpspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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