Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Eyüpspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.40 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kasımpaşa lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Eyüpspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.23 xG and Eyüpspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / defence 0.898 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.23 / Eyüpspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / def 0.898 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 43% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.90) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.86x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.46
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.94 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 9W 13D 15L from 37 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 19L across 37 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 0.97 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 5W 7D 6L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Eyüpspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 44%, Eyüpspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Kasımpaşa and 44% for Eyüpspor.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games; Eyüpspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 44% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 44% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.