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Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Eyüpspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Eyüpspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 38%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.11 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights