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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 1W 5D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Eyüpspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 0.90 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kasımpaşa lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Eyüpspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 57% | Eyüpspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Eyüpspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.743 / defence 1.204 | Eyüpspor attack 0.881 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.225. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Kasımpaşa games / 61 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Eyüpspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Eyüpspor 40%.

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