Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor – Match Report

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Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.10 xG and Eyüpspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 43%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Eyüpspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

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