Kasımpaşa 2-5 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 37 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Beşiktaş 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 60% versus Beşiktaş 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG and Beşiktaş 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.007 / defence 0.909 | Beşiktaş attack 1.333 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.433. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Kasımpaşa games / 72 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 54%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 1.85. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.03 / Beşiktaş 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.007 / def 0.909 | Beşiktaş attack 1.333 / def 0.636 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Beşiktaş xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 5 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 22% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.01) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
22%
4.48
24%
4.22
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.76
1.74
Beşiktaş xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
25.41
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.74 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 72 games, going 27W 15D 30L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.85 PPG from 72 outings (37W 22D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 15W 7D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.53 points per game from 36 outings (14W 13D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.75 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 27W 15D 30L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.44 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 69%, Beşiktaş at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 47% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Kasımpaşa 2-5 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG and Beşiktaş 1.74 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Beşiktaş attack 1.33 / defence 0.64, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 54%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Beşiktaş 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.