🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.31 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Başakşehir attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 59%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights