Kasımpaşa 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 2D 5L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 0.90 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Antalyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 63% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.175 / defence 1.212 | Antalyaspor attack 0.728 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.329. Data: 60 Kasımpaşa games / 60 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 3.57. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.61 / Antalyaspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.175 / def 1.212 | Antalyaspor attack 0.728 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.18) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.05
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.78
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
6%
17.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 21W 12D 27L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 22L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.25 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 11W 5D 13L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 8W 7D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.31 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 72%, Antalyaspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Kasımpaşa) and 45% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Kasımpaşa's games and 41% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 45% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.21 against Antalyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.25 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.