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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.15 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights