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Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.99 xG and Alanyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.26 / defence 1.40 against Alanyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 55% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 67%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights