Kasımpaşa 4-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Kasımpaşa welcome Adana Demirspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.80 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 66% versus Adana Demirspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 56% | Adana Demirspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.082 / defence 1.251 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.898 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.220. Data: 32 Kasımpaşa games / 32 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Adana Demirspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.24 / Adana Demirspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.082 / def 1.251 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.898 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa 4 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 32% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.08) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.36
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.61
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.37 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 8D 13L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.62 PPG from 32 outings (14W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.28 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.44 points per game from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 8L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.56 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 75%, Adana Demirspor at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kasımpaşa and 56% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 62% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 56% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Adana Demirspor 4-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 38%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 56%, Adana Demirspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.