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Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Hatayspor 2-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.29 xG and Konyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 39% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 33%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 51%, Konyaspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.90 PPG, Konyaspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights