Hatayspor 1-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hatayspor 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 59% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.66 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.851 / defence 0.972 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.875 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.367. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Hatayspor games / 59 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 49% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 27%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 3.70. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 49% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Hatayspor 1.66 / Kasımpaşa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.851 / def 0.972 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.875 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Kasımpaşa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Hatayspor 1 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 49% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.12
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.16
Kasımpaşa xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.16 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 20W 13D 25L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 26L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.26 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 9W 5D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.60 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 20W 13D 25L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 21W 11D 26L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.74 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 63%, Kasımpaşa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Hatayspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Kasımpaşa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.66 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 49% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 27%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 59%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.26 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.