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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hatayspor and Galatasaray share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor and Galatasaray finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.93 xG and Galatasaray 2.46 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Galatasaray landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Galatasaray attack 1.67 / defence 0.77, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 11% | Draw 19% | Galatasaray 70%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Galatasaray 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights