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Hatayspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, as Hatayspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.62 xG and Göztepe 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Göztepe attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 32%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 43%, Göztepe 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights