Hatayspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hatayspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 2.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 0–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 44% versus Fenerbahçe 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 64% | Fenerbahçe 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.65 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.528 / defence 1.400 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.256 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.388. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.528 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Hatayspor games / 70 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 8% | Draw 15% | Fenerbahçe 77%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 12.50 | Draw 6.67 | Fenerbahçe 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 30% | Fenerbahçe 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 8% | Draw 15% | Fenerbahçe 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 43% | xG Hatayspor 0.65 / Fenerbahçe 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.528 / def 1.400 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.256 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Fenerbahçe xG
43%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 8% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 77% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.53x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.26x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
8%
12.67
15%
6.61
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.09
2.44
Fenerbahçe xG
12.67
8%
Home win
6.61
15%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
9%
11.50
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
1%
145.70
40%
2.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Hatayspor and 2.44 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 70 games, going 21W 13D 36L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.06 PPG from 70 outings (43W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 14W 9D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 34 outings (20W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.17 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 63%.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 36L in their last 70 games (1.09 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 43W 15D 12L in their last 70 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hatayspor and 65% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Hatayspor's games and 71% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hatayspor's matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.65 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.44 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.53 / defence 1.40 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.26 / defence 0.74, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 8% | Draw 15% | Fenerbahçe 77%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 64%, Fenerbahçe 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.