Hatayspor 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 2.17 PPG across 6 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games (2.17 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.17 for Hatayspor, 2.17 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Fenerbahçe 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hatayspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.51 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.324 / defence 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.848 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.023. Hatayspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Hatayspor games / 6 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 23%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 4.35. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 67% | Fenerbahçe 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Hatayspor 1.51 / Fenerbahçe 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.324 / def 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.848 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fenerbahçe xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Hatayspor 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 51% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.32x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (0.85x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.85
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.45
0.94
Fenerbahçe xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.94 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 1D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for Hatayspor against 2.17 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Hatayspor's scoring rate against Fenerbahçe's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Hatayspor) and 0% (Fenerbahçe) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Hatayspor and 0% for Fenerbahçe.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 67%; Fenerbahçe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hatayspor's recent games and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fenerbahçe defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 1-2 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.51 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.94 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.32 / defence 1.08 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 51% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 23%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Fenerbahçe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Fenerbahçe 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 2.17 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.