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Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fenerbahçe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor beat Fenerbahçe 4-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 3.05 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.71 / defence 0.79, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 11% | Draw 14% | Fenerbahçe 75%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights