Hatayspor 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 0 for Beşiktaş and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 51% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 55% | Beşiktaş 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.26 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.062 | Beşiktaş attack 1.173 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.278. Data: 47 Hatayspor games / 48 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 45%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 2.22. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 50% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Hatayspor 1.26 / Beşiktaş 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.851 / def 1.062 | Beşiktaş attack 1.173 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Hatayspor 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hatayspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.17x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.31
25%
4.06
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.85
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
3.31
30%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
6%
16.27
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.59 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 9D 21L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 19W 18D 10L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.60 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 7W 10D 6L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 18D 10L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.70 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 61%, Beşiktaş 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Hatayspor) and 48% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hatayspor's games and 65% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Hatayspor's recent games and 48% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.26 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 30% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 55%, Beşiktaş 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.28 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.