Hatayspor 0-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Başakşehir at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu: 5W 1D 1L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hatayspor at 1.90 PPG versus Başakşehir's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Başakşehir 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.71 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.167 / defence 1.108 | Başakşehir attack 1.003 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.076. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Hatayspor games / 14 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 26%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Başakşehir 3.85. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 71% | Başakşehir 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hatayspor 1.71 / Başakşehir 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.167 / def 1.108 | Başakşehir attack 1.003 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Başakşehir xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 48% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hatayspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.88
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.20
Başakşehir xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
21.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.20 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 8W 2D 4L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 7W 1D 6L from 14 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.86 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 7W 1D 6L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.50 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hatayspor at 67%, Başakşehir at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hatayspor and 83% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hatayspor's games and 83% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hatayspor's matches and 83% of Başakşehir's.
Do Hatayspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.71 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 26%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Başakşehir 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.86 PPG, Başakşehir 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.