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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Hatayspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 2-4 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.58 xG and Başakşehir 1.79 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 34% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 43%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 52%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights