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Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 2-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.38 xG and Antalyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 44% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.88 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights