Hatayspor 0-3 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ankaragücü at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Hatayspor welcome Ankaragücü to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ankaragücü — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ankaragücü have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ankaragücü's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Ankaragücü winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Ankaragücü trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 36% versus Ankaragücü 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 68% | Ankaragücü 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.98 xG and Ankaragücü 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.603 / defence 1.270 | Ankaragücü attack 0.732 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.301. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Hatayspor games / 28 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 41%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Ankaragücü 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 40% | Ankaragücü 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Hatayspor 0.98 / Ankaragücü 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.603 / def 1.270 | Ankaragücü attack 0.732 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ankaragücü xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Ankaragücü.
Where is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 30% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hatayspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.60x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.41
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.19
1.21
Ankaragücü xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.21 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 6W 5D 17L from 28 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 15L across 28 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.82 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 3W 2D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 6W 5D 17L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.23 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Ankaragücü won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
2
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Hatayspor 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 46%, Ankaragücü 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hatayspor) and 54% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Hatayspor's games and 69% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hatayspor's matches and 54% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Hatayspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ankaragücü run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.98 xG and Ankaragücü 1.21 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ankaragücü outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.60 / defence 1.27 against Ankaragücü attack 0.73 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 30% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 41%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 68%, Ankaragücü 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.82 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.