Hatayspor 0-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Altay fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Altay travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hatayspor's home record at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Altay have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hatayspor 1.30 PPG, Altay 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hatayspor, 0 for Altay and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Altay trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Altay 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 59% | Altay 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.63 xG and Altay 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.083 / defence 1.084 | Altay attack 0.677 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.261. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Hatayspor games / 34 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 52% | Draw 28% | Altay 20%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Altay 5.00. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Altay 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 52% | Draw 28% | Altay 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Hatayspor 1.63 / Altay 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.083 / def 1.084 | Altay attack 0.677 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Altay xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Altay kick off?
Hatayspor vs Altay kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Altay?
Hatayspor 0 - 1 Altay.
Where is Hatayspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Altay part of?
Hatayspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 52% chance of winning, Altay a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatayspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Altay 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Altay in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Altay (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.08) and Altay's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.59
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.56
0.93
Altay xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
26.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.93 for Altay, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 7D 13L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Altay's form line: 8W 6D 20L from 34 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Hatayspor are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Altay.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 3D 11L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Altay
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Altay have gone 8W 6D 20L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Altay away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.94 PPG; Altay away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Altay have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Hatayspor 0-1 Altay.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Altay see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 62%, Altay 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hatayspor and 56% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Altay in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Altay's.
Do Hatayspor and Altay tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Altay in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Altay defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Hatayspor 0-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.63 xG and Altay 0.93 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Altay attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 52% | Draw 28% | Altay 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Altay win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 59%, Altay 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Altay's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Altay winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Altay (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.