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Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.13 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Alanyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 33% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 36%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights