Hatayspor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 46%, yet in-form Adana Demirspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Adana Demirspor are 0.70 PPG clear of Hatayspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 54% versus Adana Demirspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 56% | Adana Demirspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.89 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.997 / defence 1.056 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.217 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.203. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Adana Demirspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Hatayspor games / 42 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 3.12. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Hatayspor 1.89 / Adana Demirspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.997 / def 1.056 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.217 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 46% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.00) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.22x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
46%
2.18
22%
4.50
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.43
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
5%
20.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.55 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 15W 8D 18L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 13L across 41 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.56 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 18W 10D 13L in their last 41 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 65%, Adana Demirspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hatayspor and 65% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hatayspor's matches and 65% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, as Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.89 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 46% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 32%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 56%, Adana Demirspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.29 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.