Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor – Match Report

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Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hatayspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Adana Demirspor beat Hatayspor 1-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.56 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 50% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 47%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hatayspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.94 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights