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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Göztepe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's home record at : 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Trabzonspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Göztepe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trabzonspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Trabzonspor 3W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Göztepe — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 44% versus Trabzonspor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 41% | Trabzonspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.43 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.996 / defence 1.011 | Trabzonspor attack 1.169 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 34 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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