Göztepe vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Göztepe welcome Samsunspor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Göztepe, 2 for Samsunspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 47% versus Samsunspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 45% | Samsunspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.15 xG and Samsunspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.840 / defence 1.004 | Samsunspor attack 0.987 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.183. Data: 37 Göztepe games / 38 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 35% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Samsunspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 35% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Göztepe 1.15 / Samsunspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.840 / def 1.004 | Samsunspor attack 0.987 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Samsunspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Samsunspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Göztepe vs Samsunspor part of?
Göztepe vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 35% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
Record (5 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Samsunspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.84x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.55
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.33
1.17
Samsunspor xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.17 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 14W 14D 10L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor's form line: 14W 13D 11L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.47 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Samsunspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.63 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Samsunspor runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 47%, Samsunspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Göztepe) and 53% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Göztepe have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Göztepe's games and 63% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Göztepe's recent games and 53% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.