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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Göztepe welcome Konyaspor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe at this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Göztepe) versus 1.70 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Göztepe trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Konyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 44% versus Konyaspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 41% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.68 xG and Konyaspor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.996 / defence 1.011 | Konyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Göztepe 46% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 3.85. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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