🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Göztepe at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Kayserispor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Göztepe welcome Kayserispor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Göztepe — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Göztepe have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Göztepe, 2 for Kayserispor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Göztepe trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Kayserispor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Kayserispor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Kayserispor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.71 xG and Kayserispor 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.069 / defence 0.737 | Kayserispor attack 0.767 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.316. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Göztepe games / 57 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 57% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 13%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 40% | Kayserispor 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights