Giresunspor 0-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Hatayspor travel to Çotanak Stadyumu to take on Giresunspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 4W 2D 3L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Giresunspor 1.70 PPG, Hatayspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 39% versus Hatayspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 33% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.46 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 1.002 / defence 1.046 | Hatayspor attack 0.782 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.154. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Giresunspor games / 18 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 48% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Hatayspor 4.35. Giresunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 44% | Hatayspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 48% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Giresunspor 1.46 / Hatayspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 1.002 / def 1.046 | Hatayspor attack 0.782 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hatayspor xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Hatayspor?
Giresunspor 0 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 48% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Giresunspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Hatayspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.40
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.40
0.94
Hatayspor xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.94 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 6W 4D 8L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 9W 2D 7L from 18 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.22 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 2D 7L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Hatayspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hatayspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Hatayspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2023, when Giresunspor 3-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 44%, Hatayspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Giresunspor and 33% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hatayspor in 33%; Giresunspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Hatayspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Giresunspor's recent games and 33% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Giresunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Giresunspor 0-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.46 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Hatayspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 48% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 23%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 33%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.22 PPG, Hatayspor 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.