🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gençlerbirliği S.K. edge out Kasımpaşa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.38 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 35% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%, Kasımpaşa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.88 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gençlerbirliği S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights