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Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gençlerbirliği S.K..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.21 xG and Göztepe 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gençlerbirliği S.K. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Göztepe outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Göztepe attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 36% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 31%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%, Göztepe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Göztepe's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights