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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gençlerbirliği S.K..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-3 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.84 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.68 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.70 / defence 1.13 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 3/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 57%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 67%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gençlerbirliği S.K. shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights