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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gençlerbirliği S.K. defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.91 xG and Eyüpspor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Eyüpspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 5/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 43%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 60%, Eyüpspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights