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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gençlerbirliği S.K. defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.92 xG and Başakşehir 1.54 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 11/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 50%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 54%, Başakşehir 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights