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Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-1 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.41 xG and Antalyaspor 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gençlerbirliği S.K. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 1/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 40% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 33%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 100%, Antalyaspor 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gençlerbirliği S.K. managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights