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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Alanyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.07 xG and Alanyaspor 1.61 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Alanyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 23% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 48%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 43%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights