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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Gaziantep FK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Trabzonspor attack 1.35 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 22% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 51%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.26 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights