🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor finished level at 2-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.20 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Samsunspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 34% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 34%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights